# Which BTO should I apply for? Odds & budget matcher

Rank every tracked HDB BTO project by your estimated **invitation probability**, filtered by applicant category (first-timer family, second-timer family, first-timer single or senior), flat type, town and your ballot chances, alongside your **EHG housing grant** and **30% MSR loan ceiling**.

## How the matcher combines odds and budget

1. **Ballot odds from official HDB application rates**: For every project with published HDB rates in your chosen applicant category, we compute your invitation probability using our [weighted-ballot model](https://btoradar.com/methodology) at your chosen number of ballot chances (0% decline and a hypothetical 40% decline scenario based on historical HDB reporting).
2. **Affordability from your household income**: Your gross monthly income sets both your [Enhanced CPF Housing Grant (EHG)](https://www.hdb.gov.sg/buying-a-flat/flat-grant-and-loan-eligibility/couples-and-families/enhanced-cpf-housing-grant) (up to $120,000 for first-timer families earning $9,000 or below, or up to $60,000 for first-timer singles earning $4,500 or below under the [EHG (Singles) schedule](https://www.hdb.gov.sg/buying-a-flat/flat-grant-and-loan-eligibility/singles/enhanced-cpf-housing-grant)) and your maximum monthly mortgage repayment under the **30% Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR)**.
3. **Historical comparison only**: The ranking includes only published HDB rate rows. Closed projects cannot be applied for; historical rates do not predict a future ballot result.